Market Outlook
| April 30, 2026 | 1 Month |
1 Year |
|
| Rupees per Dollar | 94.92 | 94.82 | 84.50 |
| Oil (dollars per barrel) | 114.01 | 112.57 | 63.12 |
| Retail inflation (CPI) | 3.40% (March) | 3.21% | 3.34% |
- RBI, in its April policy meeting, kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while remaining cautious on the growth. RBI’s GDP forecast for FY27 is pegged at 6.90% (vs 7.60% expected for FY26) as crude firmly remains above $100 due to the ongoing geopolitical tension. While CPI inflation for FY27 is forecasted higher at 4.60%, RBI may focus more on growth and adopt a prolonged policy pause.
- The US Federal Reserve (Fed) also kept the policy rate unchanged to 3.50–3.75% in its April 2026 policy meeting with a dovish bias, as growth remains a concern.
- While the geopolitical tension may continue to keep bond yields under pressure, we expect the longer tenor yields to remain supported, as demand-supply dynamics remain in favor. We expect 10Y benchmark to trade in 6.90%-7.15% range.
| Index | 1 month (%) | 1 year (%) | 3 years (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY50 | 7.5 | -1.4 | 9.9 |
| BSE100 | 8.5 | 0.1 | 11.5 |
| NIFTY500 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 14.2 |
| NIFTY Midcap100 | 13.6 | 10.5 | 23.4 |
At April 30, 2026
Nifty was up 7.5 % for the month of April 2026
- Recovery from sell-off of March 2026 despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict, a weak rupee and rising crude oil prices
- Mid and small cap out-performed large-cap. Within BSE 100 index, amongst sectors Infrastructure / EPC outperformed while Technology / Insurance underperformed the broader market
We maintain our positive stance in the short term as well as in the medium term
- Q4FY26 earnings are in line with expectations
- FII selling getting absorbed by robust domestic flows
- Prolonged Middle East conflict could lead to higher inflation, current account deficit and commodity prices
- The Nifty’s one year forward FY27 P/E at 19x, is in line with 5-year average
In the medium term, we expect certain important drivers for growth:
- India’s growth outlook is supported by twin policy easing to support domestic demand
- The government’s focus on building a resilient economy through energy security, trade deals and policy reforms with the aim to enhance the business environment and attract foreign investment.
Market consensus for Nifty earnings CAGR over FY2026-28 at 16%
COMP/DOC/May/2026/65/0217
