April 30, 2025 1 Month
1 Year
Rupees per Dollar 84.50 85.51 83.44
Oil (dollars per barrel) 63.12 74.95 87.86
Retail inflation (CPI) 3.34% (March) 3.61% 4.85%
Security Yield
Security Yield
  • European Central Bank (ECB) cut its policy rates by 25 bps to 2.25%. US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged as they would like to await for the outcomes of the latest tariffs hike by the Trump administration on inflation
  • RBI announced Open Markets Operations (OMO) to purchase ₹ 1250 billion of government securities in four tranches in the month of May 2025
  • Crude oil prices dropped below $60 as OPEC+ announced further output hikes
  • We remain ‘neutral’ on the outlook for bond markets
    • The OMO’s and FX swaps undertaken by the RBI will ensure durable liquidity remains surplus going forward, which will be supportive for the short-medium term segment. We expect the 10 year G-sec yield to trade in a range of 6.25%-6.40% in the near term
    • Market will be watchful of global developments and its impact on the exchange rate
Security Yield
Index 1 month (%) 1 year (%) 3 years (%)
NIFTY50 3.5 7.7 12.5
BSE100 3.2 6.8 13.0
NIFTY500 3.2 4.9 14.2
NIFTY Midcap100 4.7 6.4 21.9

At April 30, 2025

Nifty was up 3.5 % for the month of April 2025

  • Both FIIs and DIIs continued buying during the month
  • Within BSE 100 index, amongst sectors Insurance/Oil & Gas outperformed while Metal & Minerals/Technology underperformed the broader market

Our outlook remains cautious in the short term while it remains positive in the medium term

  • Rising recession risk in USA and heightened geo-political tension with neighbors is a key near term issue
  • Q4-FY2025 earnings season has been muted so far, however largely inline with expectations
  • FII flows seem to have turned positive amidst fears around lower global growth and tariff uncertainty while domestic flows remain strong
  • The Nifty’s P/E is trading at 21x for FY2026E trading near its 5-year average

In the medium term, we expect certain important drivers for growth:

  • Domestic policy pivot has shifted in favour of ‘growth’ (CRR cut, rate cut, liquidity infusion, lower risk weights and tax cuts)
  • India benefits from structural levers in the form of demographic benefits, rising formalisation, manufacturing focus and digitisation
  • Corporate balance sheets remain strong which positions them well for next leg of growth
  • Earnings trajectory will be key monitorable over medium term

Market consensus for Nifty earnings CAGR over FY2025-FY2027 at 11%

 

COMP/DOC/May/2025/75/0173
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